BRIEFING

THIS IS A FREE BRIEFING SERVICE EXCERPTED FROM OUR PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION PUBLICATIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT SOUTHSCAN.NET


All our material is copyrighted - quotation only with credit. For extensive quotation please contact us here.


Search this website

Zimbabwe:

Mugabe, facing widespread dissent, instead focuses on internal faction

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] To many local observers, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe is in a defining moment in his 27-year rule, facing a combination of civil disobedience, political unrest and infighting within Zanu-PF.

Yet his focus has been less on striking trade unionists or the political opposition than on one of the main factions seeking to wrest power from him, that of Solomon Mujuru, former military chief, who as 'Rex Nhongo' was his Zanla guerrilla army leader and right-hand man.

Politburo recriminations ...

  • The two dominant factions in the ruling party are led by rural housing minister and former ally Emmerson Mnangagwa and by Mujuru and his wife, the vice-president, Joice Mujuru.
  • Mugabe and Joice Mujuru clashed at the Zanu-PF national congress in December...
  • On Tuesday Mugabe attacked the Mujuru camp.
  • Late next month Zanu-PF may adopt the resolution to postpone presidential elections from 2008 to 2010.
  • Mugabe may appoint Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono as prime minister.
  • Gono has attacked the "barons" who smuggle precious stones, directed at Solomn Mujuru.
  • But Mujuru's faction is broader than the other contenders', and he has the goods on Mnangagwa.
  • All the elite are engaged in plunder of one sort or another.
  • Mujuru's earlier intra-elite battles.
  • The question is, however, whether the ructions inside Zanu-PF are being superseded by the disorder outside.

For the full report and analysis subscribe here >>

RELATED REPORTS ...

Zimbabwe:

Police prevent opposition from mobilising

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] Throughout the week Zimbabwe's police have been clamping down on opposition rallies, to prevent any show of strength.

A ban on all political rallies for a three-month period was announced early on Wednesday. The opposition likened the move to "a state of emergency" and said they would contest it in the courts.

There have been continuing arrests and beatings in the main centres. The atmosphere was further charged by rolling public service strikes.

__________

Zimbabwe:

IMF and EU keep sanctions going

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] The International Monetary Fund decided on Friday to keep in place current sanctions against Zimbabwe, buttressing the European Union's decision on Monday to extend 'smart' sanctions for another year.

__________

Zimbabwe:

SA again rejects 'confrontation'

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] South Africa has again rejected any notion of taking a more active diplomatic role in the Zimbabwe crisis.

Instead it is asserting that the problem is a multilateral one for the entire Southern African Development Community, an argument repeatedly used in the past.

Last week German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country holds the EU presidency, urged SA in barely veiled terms to use its influence to help end the "suffering" from President Robert Mugabe's policies.


Namibia:

Nujoma and Mugabe may swap notes

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe is due to visit Namibia next week. It is an official visit and he will see the president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, but also undoubtedly his old ally Sam Nujoma. They are likely to discuss how to hang onto power, and how to use their parties to do so.

Nujoma is setting up a return to power in the next election in 2010 after having been ousted in 2004.

Tension in the ruling Swapo party (the South-West African People's Organisation) has been heightened by Nujoma's move to recover the presidency.

TODAY'S NEWS

Angola
Botswana
Burundi
Congo DR
Kenya
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Rwanda 
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe

News on conflict and governance
Business, regional news

EU newspapers
Lusophone newspapers
SA newspapers

BECOME A PREMIUM SUBSCRIBER:

Bi-weekly in depth reports

Instant access to full reports in the current issue.

Searchable online archives for two years.

Discount on back issue purchases.

Discount on our other reports.

SIGN UP HERE


Monthly in-depth reports

ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SECURITY REPORTS ON SADC REGION COUNTRIES

SIGN UP HERE


A FREE INDEX OF SOUTHSCAN'S 2006 REPORTS IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.


BRIEFINGS 2007
12 jan 26 jan 9 feb
23 feb 9 mar 23 mar
6 apr 20apr 4 may
18 may 1 june 15 june
29 june 13 july 27 july
10 aug 24 aug 7 sept
21 sept 5 oct 19 oct
2 nov 16 nov 30 nov
14 dec

Congo:

Key moves towards 'social market economy' set out in draft programme

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] The Congolese national assembly plans to establish a "social market economy", the term itself showing the influence of economic ideas from the European Union. General liberalization measures have been announced, such as the end of the state monopoly over "certain" sectors of the economy.

One of the main priorities is security. The programme stresses finalizing the integration of the armed forces.

The other targets are the modernisation of the police and of the judiciary and the "moralisation" of the society.

  • The government plans to increase state expenditures from a 15.8 percent of the GDP in 2006 to 29 percent in 2009.
  • More than half of the programme, which will cost US$14.3 billion over the 2007-2011 period, will be financed by the international community.
  • Foreign support depends on the conclusion of a new reform programme in discussions with the IMF and the World Bank.
  • The stakes are high because all reconstruction efforts this year could be hampered by the DRC's obligation to pay US$476 million in debt service in 2007.
  • It has set new targets for year-end 2007 -
  • GDP growth of 8.1 percent,
  • inflation rate of 9.2 percent,
  • exchange rate of CFr557.5 to the US Dollar.
  • The economic and social situation remains serious and the conflicts that were frozen during the electoral period are looming again.

 For the full report and analysis subscribe here >>

RELATED REPORTS ...

Congo:

Angolan army's incursion chills relations

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07]  The DRC government delivered an official protest over the expulsion from Angola over the last few weeks of more than 8,000 Congolese migrants, mostly illegal diamond dealers or miners, and the occupation by the Angolan army of several villages in the Kahemba area of the Bandundu province.

In the recent past, there have been other Angolan army incursions..

The willingness of Luanda government to risk its warm relations with Kabila over the diamond issue demonstrates the urgency with which it is now pursuing complete control of the diamond sector.

It also shows a growing confidence that its position in the region and in the international sphere.

 

Region:

SA to train and equip CAR military

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] South Africa signed a defence co-operation agreement with the Central African Republic in Pretoria last week.

The CAR is rapidly being drawn into the imbroglio involving Uganda and Sudan, together with the eastern DR Congo, and the agreement indicates a new willingness by SA to engage in regions where conflict is brewing.

  • The CAR agreement with SA involves military training, and the exchange of trainees, instructors, observers and skills. SA is also to donate surplus military stock.
  • This week Uganda said that the leadership of the rebel Lord's Resistance Army and 400 troops had crossed into the CAR (as we flagged - SouthScan v22/03).
  • The memorandum of understanding was signed in Pretoria by SA Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota and the CAR's mines and energy minister, Sylvain Doutin Guai.
  • The main recipient to date of SA's second-hand armaments has been Uganda.
  • The donation to the CAR could come from a second-hand stock that includes armoured cars, anti-aircraft guns and machine guns.

For the full report and analysis subscribe here >>

RELATED REPORTS ...

Region:

Military influence grows in Uganda

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] Concern is growing in Uganda at the increasing influence of the military amid signs that stability in the triangle bounded by the DR Congo, Uganda, Sudan and Central African Republic could soon start to fragment.

Uganda's opposition 'Forum For Democratic Change' says power is increasingly concentrated in a clique of seven military generals.

The opposition is appealing to regional bodies because of Uganda's history in military involvement in neighbouring countries.

Generals in charge ...

__________

Region:

Burundi's last hold-out comes into the fold

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] Agathon Rwasa, the leader of Burundi's last rebel group, the FNL, has joined the government in implementing the ceasefire agreement.

SA this week also approved the deployment of 1,100 soldiers to Burundi as part of an African Union special task force.

 

Angola:

British activist to face spying charges after Cabinda visit

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] Angolan authorities released a British human rights activist on bail Wednesday and ordered her to stand trial on spying charges.

Sarah Wykes, who was researching Angola's oil sector for the London-based non-governmental organization Global Witness when she was arrested in Cabinda last Sunday, was freed on US$2,000 bail.

  • It remains uncertain whether she was arrested because of the government's concerns about stability in Cabinda, or to thwart further probing of its oil accounting, an issue on which Global Witness has concentrated.
  • FLEC separatists have not been placated by the peace deal last year.
  • Nor would Luanda want a re-run of the publicity surrounding the elite's control of oil and other mineral revenues.
  • Chinese credits and companies are leading a massive reconstruction effort and the government appears confident this will ensure a substantial election victory next year.
  • An Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI) was set up in June 2003, but in Southern Africa only the DR Congo and Mozambique have signed up to it.
  • Angola is basking in Western approval because of its new strategic importance as a key African oil producer.
  • Military visits ...

For the full report and analysis subscribe here >>

RELATED REPORTS ...

Region:

EIB engages China on loan conditionalities

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] The European Investment Bank wants to open a dialogue with China on its lending, which it sees as posing a risk in Africa.

EIB chairman Philippe Maystadt has invited Chinese financial institutions to engage in a dialogue over conditionalities on investments in the continent.

The Chinese presence in Africa is impressive.Investments exceed those that the EIB plans to invest over the 2008-2013 .

EIB projects ...

Joining the Inga scheme ...

 

Lesotho:

Losers challenge vote results but SA breathes sigh of relief

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] There was visible relief in SA that the elections in Lesotho went smoothly, thus far with only restrained mutterings from the losers.

The snap poll was a consequence of 18 members of the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy crossing the floor to the new opposition All Basotho Convention (ABC) in late 2006 (SouthScan v21/21).

  • Before the election SA Defence Minister Mosioua Lekota said South Africa would be on the alert.
  • Memories of SA's military intervention in 1998 are still fresh.
  • In the end the voting went smoothly and the LCD and its alliance partner the National Independent Party (NIP) won comfortably.
  • The leader of the ABC opposition party, Tom Thabane, will challenge the results in court and Maj-Gen. Justin Metsing Lekhanya, formerly chairman of the military council also protested.

For the full report and analysis subscribe here >>

 

WATCHING BRIEFS ...

Region:

SA maintains Sahara support

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] South Africa has promised to support the Saharwi people's right to self-determination, a spokesman for the separatist Western Sahara region said on Wednesday after talks with the government.

SA's ruling African National Congress has been a strong supporter of the Polisario, the Sahrawi political movement.

M'Hamed Khadad, the Saharwi's chief negotiator, met with Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Earlier this month, Morocco unveiled a plan to grant self-rule to the region.

For the full report and analysis subscribe here >>

SA politics:

Court throws out coup plot case

[© SouthScan v22/04 23 Feb 07] The Pretoria regional court this week found a group of eight alleged mercenaries involved in the Equatorial Guinea 'coup' plot not guilty of contravening sections of the Regulation on Foreign Military Assistance Act (SouthScan v22/03).

"There was credible evidence by the State's witnesses that the coup was sanctioned by the South African government or that they (accused) were under the impression that it was sanctioned," magistrate Peet Johnson said.