BRIEFING

EAST AFRICA AND THE HORN

Confusion on Somalia policy clouds SA military decision

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] By late this week South African military officials had still not received any formal request for troops for Somalia - but even when the request arrives there will be no infantry troops to send. Instead SA may supply fewer than a hundred close protection troops, military observers and headquarters staff, if an African Union force ever gets off the ground, military analysts in Pretoria told SouthScan.

UN undersecretary for political affairs Ibrahim Gambari said this week the deployment of a peacekeeping force would be "problematic" without a political settlement in place and called for talks inside Somalia between clan leaders and political leaders.

But US, European Union, African and Arab diplomats have already called for an African peacekeeping force of around 8,000 soldiers. A thousand troops for the force could come from Uganda, after its parliament gives the go-ahead. Nigeria, which is already sending a sizeable force to Darfur in the Sudan, has also been asked. In addition Tanzania, Benin, Senegal and Malawi have been mentioned as possible contributors. SA Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said she wants to see a speedy deployment of peacekeepers, but a decision would have to await a cabinet meeting in late January or early February. The Nigerians would not comment until after an AU summit set for January 29-30 in Ethiopia. The Ugandan parliament, which needs to agree a deployment, has not fixed a date to discuss the issue. A US diplomat in Kenya said an African peacekeeping force should be in Mogadishu within weeks but observers in SA do not believe any operation could realistically be mounted in less than a few months.

SA had forewarning late last year at meetings of IGAD, the East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and the AU that it could be asked for support, but at that stage there was no indication of UN or other financing for the exercise. That changed in the past week with the AU request. But response in SA and among those other African countries asked for aid has been cool. A South African foreign affairs official used the fateful 'quagmire' word in a response to media enquiries. "We would be perceived to be fighting the US war on terror. Any peacekeeping force there would lose credibility," the official told AP.

·      Uganda has its own reasons for playing up to the US request. President Yoweri Museveni is keen to ensure that Uganda has a central role in an East African standby force.

·      SA is already hard pressed to find peacekeeping troops. But the main concern is that the putative Somalia project has no exit strategy.

·       There was also speculation in SA that there could be a rift between the Pentagon and the US State Department.

·       In Kenya there has been apparent disarray among the intelligence services, the military and the police. Any assistance for Washington is likely to draw down criticism, not just among Kenya's Muslim minority, who make up about 10 percent of a population of 31 million.Attention is now on the US Special Forces based in northern Kenya.

·      The aftermath may come in elections later this year.

·      As for Ethiopia itself, the US has now firmly separated its diplomatic pressure for democratic reforms from its anti-terrorist alliance with the government Meles Zenawi.

·      The AU is banking on some form of peace deal. The European Union has made assistance to the transitional government conditional upon some broadening of its political base, but the US appears less interested.

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South Africa:

Muslims urge government to intervene in Somalia

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] SA's Muslim Judicial Council (MJC) has urged the government to intervene, saying the US attack was criminal and a violation of law. It called on the government to ensure that the “leadership of the Islamic Courts Union be protected".

Mozambique:

US boats arrive to boost navy

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The US government has delivered three vessels for maritime patrols, to protect the country's maritime and lake resources against illegal fishing. The US sees the Indian Ocean littoral as a strategic region.

South Africa:

4,500 new military recruits

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The SA National Defence Force will start training 4,518 recruits this month. Another 4,000 recruits had already reported. The recruitment drive for 2008 is due to start in March.

TODAY'S NEWS

SA bank in Uganda is a big hit for Kenyans with money

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] South African-based Stanbic Bank's entry into the Ugandan securities market has come with a bigger bang than expected as Kenyans have rushed in to buy shares. Last month's offer was oversubscribed by a factor of two. The effect was instantaneous, with a rapid appreciation of Ugandan Shilling against the US Dollar.

·      Stanbic assets in Uganda have grown from Shs720bn in 2002 to Shs1 trillion at the close of 2006.

·      Uganda's Central Bank estimates the demand for credit in Uganda is at Shs1 trillion.

·      Stanbic has to contend with fast-growing micro-finance institutions.

·      With the growing strength of Ugandan stock market, donor dependence will be drastically reduced as domestic resources are mobilised.

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SA gets chance to run key Ethiopian rail link

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The Belgian-South African consortium Vecturis-Comazar will operate the 781-km railway between Addis Ababa and the port of Djibouti after the rehabilitation of the line is completed.

The concession has been awarded for 25 years, Vecturis' CEO Eric Peiffer told SouthScan.

The Italian consortium Consta has been awarded the rehabilitation contract.

CENTRAL AFRICA

Congo:

New government will face multiple challenges

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The DR Congo's newly appointed prime minister, the 81-year-old leader of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU), Antoine Gizenga was late this week still deep in consultations to form the country's first post-transition government of 60 members, including 38 ministers and 22 deputy ministers.

·      The list should be announced on January 15 or in the following few days.

·      The three main parties in the 'Alliance of the Presidential Majority' have been negotiating hard for portfolios.

·      The PPRD wants the key ministries of finance, foreign affairs, mining and energy.

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Region:

Great Lakes conference plans $2-billion spend

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] A two-billion-dollar pact was agreed last month at a summit of regional leaders to ensure development and stability in the Great Lakes region.

A 'Special Fund for Reconstruction and Development' was set up, to be managed by the African Development Bank.

Region:

Chissano to mediate in Ugandan talks

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] Former Mozambican president Joaquim Chissano was in Kampala this week as a special UN envoy to help end the long-running conflict in northern Uganda.

Angola:

Postponement of elections gives both sides breathing space

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The MPLA government has secured a reprieve with the postponement just before Christmas of legislative and presidential elections - they were supposed to have taken place later this year.

Parliamentary elections should take place in 2008 and the presidential election should be run in 2009. 

·      The postponement suits both the MPLA, which hopes to distribute more of the dividends of peace before the polls, and the opposition, which is unprepared to confront the ruling party in current circumstances.

·      Elections this year would also have exacerbated an already tense political atmosphere in Luanda, where crime is also on the rise.

·      Intrigues within the elite continue apace.

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Angola:

Cabinda peace still not complete

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The government is still mopping up in the Cabinda enclave five months after the partial peace agreement there.

A reported 28 FLEC operational commanders failed to surrender and join the FAA national army.

Angola:

Refugees fly home

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The UN refugee agency last month began to fly home 1,800 Angolan refugees from the DR Congo. by the end of this year, 52,000 Angolan refugees should be home.

SOUTHERN AFRICA

South Africa:

Sexwale bid may indicate Zuma agrees to background role

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] Despite vociferous denials the bid by Tokyo Sexwale for nomination as the ruling African National Congress president, and de facto as the state president appears real, though he has thrown his cap into the ring a full year ahead of the decision making conference. And there will soon be other contenders.

·      Sexwale is believed to have the backing of ousted deputy president Jacob Zuma.

·      Zuma's biggest organised constituency, the trade union federation Cosatu, may not object to a Sexwale nomination

·      Beyond the specifics of Sexwale's bid lies its significance in opening up SA politics.

·      The larger concern of the leadership is that faction-fighting at branch level may get out of hand

• President Thabo Mbeki's approval rating has dropped to its lowest level in four years, though he is still the most popular leader.

·      There is a slight fall-off in support for the ANC, but without the existing opposition parties gaining support.

·      The bloc of undecided voters is now larger than any opposition party support.

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South Africa:

Foreign investigators take lead in SA bribery cases

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] A probe into the bribery surrounding SA's 1998 US$5.5-billion arms procurement deals has been initiated by British and German prosecutors, rather than South African ones.

Yet the material that spurred the investigations came from South Africa where it was made public in the late 1990s.

WATCHING BRIEF ...

Zimbabwe:

Pakistan to train fighter pilots

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] The government is to bring in a group of air force trainers from Pakistan which, like Zimbabwe, operates jet fighters from China. But last week's deal, signed by Pakistani prime minister Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz contains wage arrangements for troops as well.

Mozambique:

Massive donor dependence remains

[© SouthScan v22/01 12 Jan 07] Mozambique last month presented its 2007 budget with a 54 percent deficit, which it anticipates will be made up by international donors. Outgoings were fixed at around US$2.8 billion. Revenues were estimated at some $1.3bn while the remaining $1.5bn will be donor funded.